Boeing forecasts $4.5 trillion market for 34,000 new planes over next 20 years

Boeing, the US aircraft manufacturer, has projected a $4.5 trillion market for 34,000 new aeroplanes over the next 20 years as the current world fleet doubles in size.

The figures are contained in the Boeing 2012 Current Market Outlook (CMO), which is released today.

Key points of the report are:

  • World fleet expected to double over next 20 years;
  • Strong demand for new, efficient aircraft;
  • Emerging economies leading growth.

Airline traffic is forecasted to grow at a 5 percent annual rate over the next two decades, with cargo traffic projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.2 percent. Widebodied aircraft, such as Boeing's 747-8, 777 and 787 Dreamliner, will account for almost $2.5 trillion dollars worth of new plane deliveries with 40 percent of the demand for these long-range planes coming from Asian airlines.

Robust growth in China, India and other emerging markets is a major factor in the increased deliveries over the next 20 years. Low cost carriers, with their ability to stimulate traffic with low fares, are growing faster than the market as a whole. There is also a strong demand to replace older, less fuel-efficient planes. Replacement accounts for 41 percent of new deliveries in the forecast.

The market for new planes is set to become more geographically balanced in the next two decades. Asia-Pacific, including China, will continue to lead the way in total deliveries.

As the cargo market remains sluggish, Boeing has revised downward its projection for freighters over the next 20 years. Still, the world freighter fleet is projected to nearly double from 1,740 aircraft today to 3,200 at the end of the forecast period.

About the Boeing Current Market Outlook
Since the beginning of the jet age, Boeing has produced a long-term market outlook which was first shared publicly in the early 1960s. The CMO is the longest running complete worldwide jet forecast and is regarded as the most respected and comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry.

The report and a feature, which provides an interactive database of forecast numbers, can be found at www.boeing.com/cmo.

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